Morgan Stanley's SpaceX Math: $3.4 Trillion by 2040, No Questions

Morgan Stanley sees SpaceX revenue exploding 182-fold to $3.4 trillion by 2040. For context, SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in revenue last year. The math is simple: multiply by 182. The feasibility is a different proposition entirely.

The projection lands ahead of SpaceX's planned June 2026 IPO, where the company seeks to raise $75 billion in what would rank as the largest initial public offering ever completed. Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's space analyst, initiated coverage with a $300 price target and a bull case of $600 per share. The $3.4 trillion revenue forecast sits comfortably in that bull case.

Break the forecast down and the ambition becomes clearer. Morgan Stanley expects adjusted EBITDA to top $2.7 trillion by 2040—margins that would make Apple jealous and Boeing weep. By 2030, the bank forecasts SpaceX will generate roughly $330 billion in total revenue with adjusted EBITDA approaching $230 billion. That's a 70 percent adjusted EBITDA margin in a decade. For comparison, Microsoft currently runs around 40 percent adjusted EBITDA margins.

The heavy lifting comes from artificial intelligence. Morgan Stanley estimates SpaceX's AI-focused operations will produce approximately $190 billion in revenue by 2030, roughly 58 percent of projected total revenue that year. Starlink satellite internet service rounds out the picture as the second-largest business, forecast to surge to $144 billion by 2030. The remaining revenue—roughly $96 billion—presumably comes from launch services, satellite manufacturing, and activities yet to be fully articulated to the market.

Goldman Sachs takes an even more aggressive stance. The bank expects SpaceX's AI revenue to reach $322 billion by 2030, with total company revenue climbing to $474 billion that year and adjusted EBITDA hitting $352 billion. Goldman's forecast suggests SpaceX generates more EBITDA by 2030 than Apple currently generates in annual revenue.

These projections require several things to happen simultaneously. SpaceX must establish itself as a credible AI infrastructure provider—not simply a launch company that occasionally talks about data centers. Starlink must become a primary connectivity backbone for AI operations, competing against terrestrial fiber and 5G networks that have been built over decades. The company must maintain extraordinary margins while scaling to civilization-shifting revenue levels. And it must do this in an industry where regulatory approval, spectrum allocation, and international treaties remain perpetual wildcards.

Yet here sits SPCX, trading below its IPO price ahead of a September 9 share unlock. The market, it seems, has not yet been convinced by the $3.4 trillion storyline. This is not unusual. IPO forecasts routinely assume near-perfect execution in a complex business environment. They assume no new competitors emerge with superior technology or capital. They assume regulatory environments remain favorable. They assume, in essence, that luck remains bullish.

Morgan Stanley's forecast is not mathematically impossible. It is technologically plausible. What it requires is for SpaceX to execute at a level few companies in history have achieved, across multiple business lines simultaneously, while managing the operational complexity of a vertically integrated aerospace company that also operates satellite networks and AI infrastructure.

The bank has given investors a number. Whether that number reflects probable outcomes or merely possible ones remains the actual question—and it is one the market appears to be actively debating with its wallet.